Pump&dump (P&D) šeme su česta pojava u svijetu kriptovaluta.

Najčešće se radi o nekim Telegram ili Discord grupama (Telegram i Discord su chat programi) u kojima nekoliko tisuća ljudi dogovorno kupuje neki shitcoin (kripto token koji nema nikakvu vrijednost) u istom momentu. Time mu dižu vrijednost (pump faza) i zatim iskoriste tu povećanu vrijednost da token učine privlačnim naivnim promatračima (dump faza).

U ovom ćemo članku pogledati anatomiju jedne takve šeme u jednoj od manjih P&D grupa.

Grupa

Svakodnevno se kreiraju nove grupe, no nerijetko su zapravo vanjski krugovi centralnih, već postojećih grupa – sekundarni sloj koji zapravo više služi za dump dio.

Pojednostavljeni prikaz P&D grupe

Unutarnji krug dogovara coin koji se kupuje i o tome obavještava vanjski. Čak i unutar glavnog kruga postoje razne razine pristupa informacijama. Primjerice, oni koji su platili upad (u prosjeku 1 – 10 BTC) dobivaju informaciju o novom pump-u 5-6 sekundi prije ostalih, dovoljno vremena da kupe coin po najnižoj cijeni. Ostali se priključuju nakon njih, a tek nakon toga na red dolazi vanjski krug koji kreće u žešći shopping.

Grupe koje primaju nove članove a da nisu drugi ili treći sloj je danas teško naći, a postotak uspješnih zarada se smanjuje proporcionalno udaljenosti grupe od centra.

Realističniji prikaz P&D grupe

Dok su organizatori uvijek uspješni jer su oni koji odlučuju o kojem se coinu radi te ga time kupuju dovoljno rano (nekad i više dana unaprijed), već sljedeći krug ima manji postotak uspješnosti. Unatoč tome što su platili brzi pristup informacijama, sama informacija ne smije previše kasniti do najudaljenijih krugova pa se zbog toga sve odvija u roku od nekoliko sekundi do maksimalno minute. U toj minuti može se desiti prekid internetske veze, sporo učitavanje stranice, i štošta drugo, pa odatle dolazi neuspjelih 20%. Sljedeći sloj je još neuspjeliji jer informacija još više kasni – do tog momenta pomak postaje očit na grafovima, i neki iz vanjskih krugova mogu naslutiti o kojem se coinu radi i bez službene obavijesti. Tako se priča nastavlja sve do rubnih krugova.

Faza 1: Najava

Koliko često se pumpovi dešavaju varira od grupe do grupe. Ima grupa koje pumpaju više puta na dan, dok se neke ograničavaju na veći pump jednom tjedno ili čak mjesečno. Grupa koju smo mi promatrali za ovaj članak je relativno nova i radi to jednom dnevno ili jednom u dva dana.

U prvoj fazi najavljuje se vrijeme pumpanja, i često se daje poveznica na neki brojač koji omogućava precizno sudjelovanje svim sudionicima iz raznih vremenskih zona.

Najava vremena početka pumpa u Discord chat sobi

Odbrojavanje do pumpa

Odabire se i burza na kojoj se šema odvija (tokeni kakve se isplati pumpati rijetko kad su na popularnim burzama upravo zbog toga).

Odabire se burza

Daju se upute

Bitno je napomenuti da nije prijevremeno poznato koji će se coin pumpati, osim samim organizatorima.

Faza 2: Odbrojavanje i priprema

Nakon što odbrojavanje krene, sudionici se pripremaju punjenjem računa s kojih će se izvršavati nalozi. Često se račun napuni samo s onoliko sredstva koliko sudionik misli uložiti, kako bi mogao pritisnuti na “max” i automatski izvršiti nalog za maksimalnu kupnju coina po trenutnoj tržišnoj cijeni koja god ona bila.

Brza reakcija je bitna, pa se zato često gase drugi programi, preglednici, i osigurava internetska povezivost da ne bi došlo do problema usred pumpanja – zbog tehničkih problema je vrlo lako postati bagholder.

Oni najiskusniji imaju spremne trading botove (skripte za programsku kupnju bez sučelja preglednika) kako bi izbjegli potrebu za manualnom intervencijom. Prilikom najave coina, oni ga odabiru upisom u svoju skriptu i bot sam kupi određenu količinu coina po tržišnoj cijeni i istovremeno postavi nalog za prodaju na cijenu od 150% do 200% od kupovne, sve unutar jedne sekunde.

Faza 3: Pump

Nakon što organizatori odluče koji coin se pumpa, oni kupuju dovoljnu količinu da se okoriste ali ne i da sami pokrenu pumpanje. U slučaju da sami pokrenu pump, zajednica bi ih optužila za pre-pump i izgubili bi članove. Ovakav se potez obično radi kad je grupa na izdahu i većina sudionika je izgubila povjerenje u administratore a ostali su samo najnaivniji koji neće prepoznati pre-pump prije nego padnu na zadnji trik.

Nakon što su im vreće pune, organizatori puštaju obavijest ostalim krugovima koji kreću u kupovnu maniju.

Odabir coina

Neki botovima, neki manualno, svi pune džepove jeftinim coinom koji polako postaje sve skuplji.

Oni koji napune džepove tada prelaze u hype fazu pumpanja gdje na sve chat kanale, socijalne mreže, i trollboxeve (chat prozore) burzi na kojima operiraju stavljaju obavijesti i reklamiraju coin koji se pumpa.

Pumpanje u trollboxu burze

Faza 4: Dump

U ovoj je fazi cilj natjerati nevine promatrače da se zbog naglog rasta coina (koji je sada i vidljiv na grafu) pridruže kupnji i pokupuju sada skuplji coin, postavši tako bag holderi.

Pomak tržišne cijene vidljiv na grafu

Zbog nagle rasprodaje sada skupog coina nastupa dump i time i smanjenje vrijednosti na početnu, ili nekad i ispod. U rijetkim slučajevima pump i trajno digne cijenu coina za kojih 10-15%.

Uspješno prodan coin po većoj cijeni od kupovne

Profesionalni Bagholderi

Kada organizatori kupe coin prije ostalih, to zovemo pre-pump. Primjerice, u grupi koju smo promatrali bio je najavljen OAX coin s početkom u 23:00. No, ako pogledamo graf tog coina, primjetiti ćemo prave namjere administratora:

Pre-pump

Iz slike je vidljivo da su se organizatori nakrcali ovim coinom nekih 20ak minuta prije zakazanog vremena, a u momentu objave coina počeli su prodavati, dumpavši tako na svoje članove. Razlog zašto su organizatori mogli sami pomaknuti tržište je niski volumen trgovanja tog coina: prije samog pumpa bio je svega 2 Eth. To znači da je i pola ethera bilo dovoljno da se pomakne graf.

Naime, ono što mnogi ne znaju je da organizatori za vrijeme pump faze rade svoj dodatni pumping sami svojoj grupi, kako bi natjerali svoje članove da od njih kupe skuplji coin.

Ako se nekome od članova zatim posreći da ga proda još skuplje, to je uspjeh i taj član pozitivno priča o toj grupi te dovodi još članova, dok razočarani odlaze. Kada se radi o zadnjoj grupi u lancu kao u ovom slučaju, mnogi razočarani članovi pjevaju žalopojke i mole ostale sudionike da im doniraju svoju zaradu kako bi nadoknadili gubitke.

Nezadovoljni članovi

Takve sudionike zovemo profesionalnim bagholderima jer ulaze s iznosima koje si ne mogu priuštiti izgubiti i traže samo brzu zaradu – bez razmišljanja, istraživanja, ili barem promatranja prvih 4-5 pumpanja da vide o čemu se radi.

Velika većina P&D grupa u koje vas netko pozove je ovakve vrste – prijevara dizajnirana da prvim, obećavajućim pumpom grupu pokaže vjerodostojnom, dok daljnje pumpove koristi isključivo da pokupi uloge članova. Vrlo je lako kreirati nove grupe – ako niste organizator ili netko njima blizak, vi ste potrošna roba.

Drugi tipovi P&D

Osim organiziranih P&D šema poput ove opisane gore, jedna od češćih je potplaćivanje poznatih ličnosti da reklamiraju neki coin na svojim socijalnim medijima ako imaju jako velik potencijalni krug bagholdera. Uzmimo za primjer Johna McAfeeja (500,000 sljedbenika na Twitteru) koji je poznat po svojoj otvorenosti za takve šeme. Proces je sljedeći:

  • Odabere se coin i kupi ga se u velikim količinama.
  • McAfeeja se kontaktira za promociju tog coina i plati mu se 25 BTC (njegova trenutna cijena).
  • McAfee također kupuje taj coin i tada ga promovira. Počinje pump.
  • McAfee i organizatori dumpaju coin.

Ovo je isplativo samo u slučajevima kada je potencijalna zarada veća od troška – potrebno je ipak nadoknaditi tih 25 BTC. Tu se obično ulazi u coinove s velikom tržišnom kapitalizacijom kojima se neće cijena pomaknuti čim počne manji dump. Bez velikog uloga i rizika u ovakve je šeme vrlo teško ući.

Zaključak

U tradicionalnom investicijskom svijetu, P&D šeme su strogo ilegalne. Zbog nedostatka regulacije u kripto prostoru, one su još uvijek veoma privlačan način brze zarade. Postoji više stavova o njima – da su takve šeme nemoralne i kriminalne obično tvrde oni koji se njima ne uspijevaju okoristiti, dok ih oni koji su im u središtu obično hvale kao način čišćenja tržišta od glupog novca, buđenja javnosti o kripto-mjehuru, i drugo.

Objektivno, te su šeme jednako toliko nemoralne kao i reklamiranje jackpota lutrije ili nagovaranje ljudi na sportske kladionice – sve ima svoje rizike i bez pažljivog istraživanja (tehničko ulaganje), strpljivog ulaganja (HODL ulaganje), ili dobrih kontakata (P&D), nema profita.

Napomena: Bitfalls ne sudjeluje u P&D šemama osim iz gledateljskog aspekta. Mi smo primarno dugoročni tehinčki ulagači, i sudjelovanje u ovoj grupi bilo je isključivo za istraživačke svrhe.

89 COMMENTS

  1. Excellent article. Very valuable information to the common trader. Obvious experiential knowledge. Thanks man!!

  2. Really Insightful..thanks. Based on this trend, what are your thoughts on TRON.. is it a classic case of pump and dump?

    • It had its pumps and its dumps, yes. But TRX in general is a scamcoin. No technology, just a plagiarized whitepaper. Stay away unless you’re chasing its pumps.

    • If you’re referring to Bitcoin Diamond, no that was a flat out scam. Sure, a P&D was part of the scam, but altogether that “coin” is just a moneygrab.

  3. Great article, Bruno!

    I was leaving P&D groups outside of my radar, because I am not on same page with them. I would like to see cryptocurrency and blockchain as future, not this shady practices.

    McAfee = interesting.

  4. Where did you get the inside info?

    Your only source is a 2nd/3rd level group, and I kinda doubt that they told you in that group that there’s higher levels of groups.

    Also the McCafee thing. Is that just a story built on that 25btc screenshot that could be Photoshop and wasn’t even presented as having anything to do with a PnD group (it was supposed to be the company behind the coin)?

    PnD groups like the one you refer to are real and I don’t doubt there’s higher levels than what people in the group see, but but the rest seem kinda made up

    • The is not the only group we’re in. It is the only group we’re in that is also disposable and completely fine if we get kicked out of.

      The 25BTC fee for McAfee might be made up, sure, but I don’t think anyone doubts the guy is taking bribes for pumps, only for how much.

      • If I was as rich as McCafee I’d just PnD some coins myself.. No reason to tarnish your reputation by being involved with groups like that..

        But what do I know..

        When Crypto gets more mainstream, we’ll probably see crap like a Justin Bieber coin (or whoever), the fans can pump like crazy .

        • Celebcoin already happened with Floyd Mayweather and Paris Hilton, but the SEC told them to cut it out.

  5. Seems as thought Bitfalls also post articles from Bitfinexed about “Charlie Lee Pump and Dump”, which is complete nonsense.

    • We post objective analyses, by us or other authors, with their permission. We’ll represent both sides and are open to counter arguments. We see Charlie’s response on Reddit to that post as quite a weak attempt at justifying his actions.

  6. Bruno, I don’t agree with you calling TRON a sh*tcoin. TRX has technology and developers are committing to it daily on Github. People are making these claims only based on few minor mistakes in PR. Don’t underestimate China on this one, I’ve literally got a few sources in gaming in mainland who confirmed that TRX is going to be big.

  7. Hi great article for me as a newbie. Do you think TRON price will go up back to 30 cents so that at least we can get our money back. Also can you please suggest any reliable coins to invest in ?
    Thanks.

  8. What do you think about upcoming exchange Tokens.net, from Damian Merlak, the co-founder of Bitstamp.

  9. Thanks for doing such investigation. Super valuable info. 1) Would you attribute the success of Stellar to Pumps only? 2) as far as you know, does this manipulation have an impact on BTC or ETH or do they focus on smaller caps? 3) Do you have any estimate on how big is the problem – looking at the whole crypto industry?

    • The problem is huge. I have no idea how huge, but I do know there are hundreds of such groups. Every solitary spike in the graphs you see is a pump. Stellar has been around for a while, but it’s actually got a more complex history than the rest of them. While its recent success in price has been attributed to pumps, it does have long term potential if they do something with the tech. It’s not in the dump phase yet, and I’m not sure if it will ever be in a steep dumping decline. BTC and ETH aren’t pumped like this. They’re pumped differently. See here: https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4

    • Can be anywhere from 1000 to 100000 or more. It varies from group to group, exchange to exchange, currency to currency. We’re currently in one that has 100k members, and we think it’s an outside layer.

  10. Thanks for valuable information…im watching STU since a few months and it looks like a legit project. According to your screenshots it has been pumped recently.is it à scamcoin in your opinion ?

  11. Nice article dude.

    A stupid man with money meets an experienced man with no money.

    The experienced man leaves with the money.

    The stupid man leaves with some experience.

  12. Excellent, and about trading view top ideas authors? Like Excavo, it’s not a P$D scheme?

    • Excavo does his best to get good TA across. He’s legit. The problem there is that crypto isn’t susceptible to traditional technical analysis because it’s a new and unregulated market with small volumes. So even the experts will get them very, very wrong (see his Verge forecast)

  13. Freakin’ amazing article and I mean it! I had no idea this was happening behind the seen. Is Tron a pump / dump scam as well? It was at .30 last week and now it’s .9

    Thanks!

    • Thanks!
      Tron was a scam project which pumped because of marketing, not a pump like this. It’s similar, but a different concept of fraud.

  14. I second Filter Tipsy concerning the McAfee section. The article is very intersting but the Other P&D section is not based on facts or experiments but just on a screenshot … It really tarnishes the rest of the article, at least for people who have heard of the story. In my opinion, when something has more chances to be false than true, it probably should be left unmentioned, or at best, you should have mentioned that it’s based on a rumor or a screenshot of a supposed conversion between McAfee and some crypto company.
    Also “The 25BTC fee for McAfee might be made up, sure, but I don’t think anyone doubts the guy is taking bribes for pumps, only for how much.”, it’s not about doubts, it’s about facts, otherwise it’s just gossip and rumors, which means low-value content …
    I don’t know McAfee and I’m not especially defending him, I’m trying to be objective and give a piece of constructive criticism because I liked the majority of the article.

    • Thanks for the feedback. While I have been following McAfee and his recommendations as well as his skill level for a while now and therefore know that he is 100% unable to parse the technical content of whitepapers and ICOs he “reads”, I do agree that part is very speculative and only my personal perspective on things. It’s entirely possible that I’m wrong.

  15. Hi Bruno, excellent insight, thanks for the detailed article. I can finally show this to my friends who frequently get scammed in this P&D scams…

    Question – In your personal opinion would you consider VIA & KIN a sh*tcoin.

  16. Hi Bruno, sorry my English, because I’m using a translator!
    Would you like to know your ADA (cardan) opniation?

  17. Great,great article! I just learned a lot from it. Do you think xrp an eth are also scams? I can clearly see it with tron and other shitocins but I think these two can well survive when the bubble burst and the gov regulates all cryptocurrency.

    • In my opinion XRP is useless, but not an outright scam. Eth is the only worthwhile functional coin that has long term utility and a working product, so its future is bright.

  18. Hello Bruno,
    It is a very interesting article, thank you. Can you tell me what you think about MIOTA and Cardano?

    • I can’t say anything good about IOTA. See here: http://archive.is/0PrTf – note that it’s an archived link because the author has been paid to take the post offline. I have no shareable opinion about ADA yet.

  19. hi, i just bought some tokens for perkscoin (PCT), do you think it will be a scam or a legitimate coin for the cannabis industry?

    • The cannabis industry is definitely not the type of industry that needs to be disrupted with a blockchain. No pot coin will ever amount to anything long term.

  20. Excellent article. Thank you for sharing – gained some faith in humanity 🙂 I’ve heard rumours of this happening but Ive always dismissed it. I keep thinking nah people wouldn’t do that, its just not a nice thing to do. Lost a little more faith in humanity 🙁

    • Haha thanks! We’ll continue to do such research if you continue reading our stuff and sharing it 😉

  21. Thanks Bruno this is by far the most important research I have read on Altcoins. I wish i knew this a month ago then i would not be left holding any Reddcoin, Siacoin, Tron or verge. I kept a small parcel…just in case. Unfortunately I loaded up on Stellar, which might be a mistake?

    • Stellar is an old coin. It actually has potential. McAfee ruined things somewhat with his pump, and pushed it way past what it’s worth so it’s anyone’s guess at this point.

  22. Hi Bruno, very interesting article. Do you have any idea how these organizers manage to get up to 100 000 people in their group in order to pump the coin? That just seems ridiculous to me , especially due to the fact that the group later gets disbanded when the people end up losing their money, meaning the organizers have to re-start a new group from scratch.

    • Some groups are SUPER long term and basically never disband because 20% of 100k winning is still 20k – that’s plenty to advertise and recruit new ones or get old ones to come back after a few fails. And it’s not like the same people fail every time so in better groups the departures aren’t that rampant. If you’re targeting only a 50% gain on a coin and invest the same amount in 3 different pumps, losing one isn’t a big deal – especially since the losses don’t go to 0. They go to starting level, or slightly below.

  23. Eye opening article, good read altogether! What are your thoughts on Verge overall? They seem to be the opposite to most coins i.e crappy marketing (wraith pre 2018) and genuinely have solid tech. Their lack of care towards their rep leads me to think they are committed to it’s future and less so about making money from pumps? That muppet xvgwhale seemed to be more of a pump instigator rather than the actual team

    • It’s not looking good, to be honest. Whisper was/is a flop and a single dev doing everything doesn’t bode well. We’ll see. I use it for day trading gains, but wouldn’t bet on it long term – yet. Things might change, though.

  24. Great article !
    Thank you Bruno, i’d never imagine how rotten this could be…

    Since you seem to know more than i do, what do you think of the district0x (DTN) coin ?
    And what is the percentage of real coin ?

    • All coins are “real”, the difference is in real vs fake demand. Right now, almost all demand is pumped – some by greed, some by P&D groups, but very little of it by actual utility. I can’t comment on DTN right now, but anything that deals with decentralized exchanges you can count on performing rather well in the future.

  25. So I’ll just make this easier for everyone on here… Which coins WOULD you invest in based on your research?

    Good article BTW.

  26. Wow, you really shocked me with this article. It’s a great read! I’ll definitely share it. I’m curious to know your thoughts on ethLend.

    • EthLend is fine. I don’t subscribe to lending platforms, I don’t see them as necessary in any way, but I do know some people involved in the project and can tell you that they’re not a scam at the very least.

  27. Great article and better yet great replies to the comments. A real eye opener. I would like to know what your opinion is on Tierion. They have a working technology and it seems very under rated,

  28. Great article Bruno, glad I have discovered Bitfalls. I agree with your overall view 100percent. I am really curious to know your opinion on Gbyte. I see its value, but I believe is overvalued. What do you think? thanks, ciao

  29. Tell me if my theory sounds unrealistic, please, about Dogecoin…

    There are rumors that the Chinese (and Japanese, Koreans) will buy a lot of Dogecoin when the Chinese “Year of the Dog” starts on February 16th.

    My theory, if you can call it that, is that it won’t happen. But because of the hype, the people who believe it will happen are the ones who will drive up the demand big before, not on, February 16th. And then those who are hodling will dump it on or a little after Feb. 16th.

    I’m also guessing these P&D groups may be preparing something for this period of time as well in order to capitalize on the overall hype.

    What do you think? Thanks!

    • Sounds plausible. The Asians definitely won’t be buying DOGE because of “Year of the Dog” that’s insane.

  30. Not much of a chance for us bag holders 😂 and it’s cool to see anyone or any website actually care to expose it !! Crypto is like stealing candy from a baby and grandma at the same damn time 💯💪🏻

  31. An absolutely incredible read for a noobie…

    I’ve been in a coma for literally 8 years and only recently started paying attention to Crypto (well, last August). Thankfully, I haven’t been burnt by any dodgies.

    Those who are in the P&D world are living a VERY dangerous life. You P&D the wrong person, well, you can imagine in this day and age….and its not that hard to find those people. Some take 1 minute, some take a while, but, you will be found. I am surprised that Belfort is still walking the earth…

    Again, thanks for a great read. Will share this in my crypto group.

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